 |
|
|
 |
[ 開啟全部內容 ]
[ 隱藏全部內容 ]
|
| Present Status and Future Outlook of Risk Management and Decision Analysis for Underground Projects |
|
| 陳皆儒 . 姚大鈞.秦中天 |
|
| 不確定性、決策分析、風險管理系統、地下工程、RiskMAS. |
|
| 由於都市密集發展的趨勢，使得各種都市建設工作，有朝向地下化的設計與施工的需求。綜觀各類地下工程計畫，均遭遇相當多的不確定性因素，如何於工程的整個過程，從規劃、設計、施工及至後續之營運，有效且合理處理這些不確定性因素，長久以來均是大地工程師主要面對的課題，而風險管理是相當有用的工具，也是國際間近期致力於應用與發展的領域。本文從工程破壞形式與案例開始，探討地下工程危害事件之本質與特性，並以近期陸續出現之風險評估與管理規範說明國際間面對處理工程破壞問題之趨勢，後續說明風險管理在國內工程之發展與應用現況，並介紹其完整之系統架構及主要內容，最後則針對未來發展提供看法，並對風險管理之執行應避免謬誤觀念發出警語。 |
|
| Space limitation often goes along with the development of a metropolis. As a result, there are increasing needs to move civil infrastructures to the underground spaces. Similar challenges encountered by the underground projects are various uncertain factors to overcome throughout the development of a project. Geotechnical engineers are required to tackle these uncertainties rationally. In recent years, “Risk Management” has emerged to become a useful tool in the face of uncertainty. This paper attempts to summarize current status and provide future outlook of risk management application on underground projects. Past failure case records are first reviewed to learn the essence of hazard events and the need of risk management. Guidelines of risk management for engineering projects have been published over the past few years. Currently, the implementation of a risk management system to a project is the main theme in this subject matter. The framework and basic components of a risk management system are introduced, and some detailed elements that require further addressed are outlined. |
| |
|
| Establishment and Application of Risk Management System in Underground Engineering |
|
| 蔡茂生. 林耀煌 |
|
| 風險管理、設計安全考量、營造、地下工程。 |
|
| 地下工程於複雜變化之地層中面對巨大之岩石、土層之壓力及地下水滲湧，採用能量巨大之機械作業，潛在危害極高，稍一不慎極易發生地層崩落、湧水、機械碰撞等嚴重之災害。事故發生原因複雜，管理困難。本文擬導入近年來國際盛行之風險管理系統標準，建立系列之設計至施工風險管理程序，以降低風險。運用有效之風險管理制度，期以安全、順利地完成。 |
|
| Underground engineering should be conducted in complex geological formation, encountering the enormous pressure from rocks, soil and groundwater inflow . Most works use high-powerful equipment, the highly potential hazards should be overcomed. Even the slightest mistake may cause caving strata, gushing, mechanical collision and other serious disaster . Safety managements are difficult due to complicated factor of disaster . This article applies the Risk Management System standards to establish the series procedure from design to construction, to minimize the potential hazards risk .By the effective management system, safely and successful completion will be anticipated. |
| |
|
| Slopeland Disaster Management and Risk Analysis |
|
| 陳天健 . 洪鴻智 |
|
| 坡地災害、災害管理、風險分析。 |
|
| 我國地處板塊與氣候分區之交界，山區造山運動與地震作用頻繁，於現今全球氣候變遷，劇烈天氣日益極端化下，坡地災害常無法適切預測與防範。面對不斷昇高的災害損失，「災害管理」乃逐漸成為政府、學術界與民間團體減輕災害損失之一對策。『災害管理』是對危險情況一種持續性、動態性的規劃管理過程，其目的在於減少其不確定性及降低災害發生之可能。而災害的管理作為與因應對策所需之指標，則可藉由「風險分析」提供有效之量化參數。一般「風險分析」可分成三個層面：1.災害界定，2.脆弱性評估，與3.風險估計。災害防救為大地工程師養成教育中較弱之一環，惟於坡地災害應變中，大地工程師卻常是防災的第一線人員。基於此，本文針對我國災害特性，介紹坡地災害管理的思維、作業方法、工具及科技之整體架構，並說明進行坡地災害風險分析之方法，以增進讀者對坡地災害管理之認知。 |
|
| Taiwan is located at an active tectonic belt between the Philippine Sea plate and the Eurasian plate. Due to steep topography, weak geological conditions and heavy rainfalls, landslides and debris flow disasters occurred frequently. Such large scale disaster is difficultly and costly mitigated by structural method. Alternatively, “disaster management” provides a solution for the slopeland disaster reduction and an efficient process on disaster preparedness and response. Hence, this paper introduces the concept and the methodology on slopeland disaster management as well as a risk analysis which is considered as an efficient tool for disaster reduction. The procedure of risk analysis on slopeland disaster, including hazard identification, vulnerability assessment, and risk estimation, combined with input database and analytical tools is demonstrated to help readers in understanding the slopeland disaster management. |
| |
|
| Dam Risk Management: A Case Study of Risk Analysis
for Earth Dam
|
|
| 冀樹勇.蔡明欣.高憲彰.邱士恩.趙昌虎.樓漸逵 |
|
| 風險管理、破壞模式、影響與關鍵性分析、土石壩。 |
|
| 本文蒐集彙整先進國家蓄水壩風險管理方式及經驗，探討各種風險分析方法，並以實際土石壩風險分析案例，展示其執行流程與結果。其中風險分析方法採破壞模式影響與關鍵性分析(FMECA)，該法係以系統化與歸納方式，決定影響壩功能元件之失效模式及其可能性、其偵測與干預可能性，並決定該模式影響壩功能之可能性以及後果的嚴重性，組合為元件或元件失效模式的相對關鍵性，最後找出壩的主要與次要缺陷，以提供後續改善參考。 |
|
| The international state of the practice of dam safety risk management was discussed and the methods for dam safety risk analysis were investigated in this paper. Semi-Quantitative Analysis approach, named Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), by which the main defects or weaknesses of the dams can be explored in a systematic manner was adopted to demostrate the safety risk analysis for an earth dam in Taiwan. The approach first divides a dam system into several subsystems, then further into elements influencing the dam functions. Combination of the failure mode occurrence possibility, the detection or intervention feasibility and consequencies following the failure, the criticality value for each failure mode can be obtained. Predominant failure modes are then determined with higher criticality values. The results of FMECA can be used to reduce the dam safety risk efficiently. |
| |
|
| Risk Identification and Management of Shield Tunneling |
|
| 李魁士.羅瑞雪.李順敏 |
|
| 風險評析、潛盾隧道、全面品質控制系統、失效模式與效應分析、風險優先指數。 |
|
| 本文採失效模式與效應分析之風險優先指數法進行專家關鍵評點，以評析潛盾隧道工程各項作業之風險程度，藉以辨識1.潛盾機主體、2.潛盾機出發與到達、3.線形管理、4.土壓平衡式潛盾機開挖管理、5.泥水式潛盾機開挖管理、6.隧道環片、7.背填灌漿、8.防水等流程中，總計209項潛盾隧道施工作業失效因子與對應之一般管制措施。另依評析之風險等級與作業特性，分別納入設計與施工之品管程序予以強化管理效能，符合分階篩除失效因子以達降低風險之全面品質控制精神。 |
|
| A total of 209 shield tunneling construction failure factors, which include: 1. shield machine, 2.launch and arrival, 3. alignment management, 4. excavation management of earth balance type shield machine, 5. excavation management of slurry type shield machine, 6. segment, 7. backfill grouting, 8. water stop, with their general control measures are identified. Risk Priority Number of Failure Mode and Effective Analysis is adopted to evaluate risks of shield tunneling in order to recognize high-priority risk activities. General control measures of these high risk activities are reviewed throughout the process. According to the principle of the Total Quality Control System, proper actions are required based on each case condition during design and construction stages, respectively. |
| |
|
| Risk Assessment of Construction Methods for Shield Tunnels — an Example in a Taipei Metro System Project |
|
| 張榮峰.蘇鼎鈞.陳士宏. 陳俊宏 |
|
| 潛盾隧道、事件樹分析、失誤樹分析、專家調查法。 |
|
| 大地工程於設計及施工階段常充滿不確定因素，所延伸之工程風險往往是導致成本增加及工期延宕的主要原因之一。近年來風險管理觀念的引入，將工程所面臨的不確定因素進行系統化的管理，期使工程執行的各個階段，皆能以將施工風險降至可合理化執行為目標，達到工程順利完成的最終目的。本文以台北捷運一設計案為例，說明如何在設計初期即以風險管理觀念進行潛盾隧道施工工法之評估，以事件樹及失誤樹分析進行風險辨識、以專家調查法及風險矩陣進行風險分析及評價，並提出風險減緩措施，以供工法選定及後續施工管理之參考。 |
|
| Uncertainties in geo-material property and modeling are often involved in the design and construction stages of geotechnical-related projects. Risks that follow the uncertainties are one of the major factors contributing the increase in cost and construction period of a project. Risk management that was introduced recently provides concepts to systematically control the engineering-related uncertainties and reduce risks to as low as reasonably practicable until a project is accomplished. This paper presents how risk management concept is installed at the early stage of project design. A design project for Taipei Metro System is used as an example, in which risk assessment is carried out for the construction methods of shield tunnels. Techniques such as event tree analysis, fault tree analysis, expert opinion method, and risk matrix are applied for the assessment, and the associated risk-reduction approaches are proposed. These results are used as references for the decision-making of construction methods and, furthermore, management policies in the construction stage. |
| |
|
| Application of Risk Management in Deep Excavation and Underground Engineering Its Examples |
|
| 熊彬成.周允文.王慶麟 |
|
| 風險管理、深開挖、潛盾隧道。 |
|
| 將風險管理運用在地下工程，在許多國家已被廣泛運用多時，但在台灣仍屬萌芽期。本文將介紹地下工程風險管裡的概念，以及其評估的步驟，之後再以兩個實際案例的評估做說明和探討。根據結論可知在高風險的深開挖和潛盾隧道工程中，風險管理之執行有其必要性。每一個計畫都有其獨特的風險，所以需要獨立的評估和檢討，而且須依照評估結果予以落實在計畫的執行。施工案例的整理和歸納，以及風險資料庫的建置，也是很重要的。最後，在風險管理的後續研究上，則建議朝(1)深開挖與潛盾隧道引致地盤變位之解析、(2)工址調查成果對地工風險所造成的影響、(3)既有風險評估模式在台灣深開挖與潛盾隧道工程適用性之探討、(4)觀測法與價值工程之應用和(5)契約中風險之合理分攤與爭議處理等方向進行。 |
|
| It has been widely accepted for the use of risk management in underground engineering in many countries but it is only in a new era in Taiwan. In this paper, concepts and procedures of risk management will be introduced and its application in two examples of deep excavation and shielding tunnels will also be described. It is concluded that each project has its own risks and has to be evaluated carefully and independently. Protection measures suggested based on risk management results have to be completely implemented in the project. In addition, study of case histories and establishment of database of risks are also important. At the end, it is suggested that researches associated with risk management shall be taken in the future include (1) ground deformations induced by deep excavations and shielding tunnels; (2) influences on geotechnical risks from site investigation; (3) applicability of existent risk assessment models in Taiwan; (4) Application of the observational method and value engineering and (5) risk sharing and dispute solving in the contract. |
| |
|
| Risk Control and Application Demonstration of Diaphragm Wall Construction – A Case Study of Taipei MRT System |
|
| 高宗正. 林坤霖. 林聿群. 胡庭豪 |
|
| 深開挖、連續壁、風險管理、風險管控 |
|
| 由於深開挖工程多年來經驗之累積，加以各種分析工具與學理之日趨成熟，深開挖工程之成敗關鍵幾乎繫於擋土壁施工之良窳，而其中主要且不易掌控之施工項目之一即為廣泛應用於深開挖擋土工程之連續壁施工，主要原因在於自導溝施作至最後完成單元間之止水灌漿為止，施工人員均須依靠以往類似工程或當地既有經驗，時時掌握與預判工址地層變化對施工之影響。有鑑於此，本文透過風險管理之觀念，希能以定量方式分析連續壁施工時之風險危害度，並預先採行可行預防措施，以杜絕或降低施工中之不確定風險因子。最後並以一成功案例驗證原分析之正確性，期能藉此次由設計至施工一貫性之案例說明，做為深開挖工程施工風險管理之參考。 |
|
| As a result of the accumulated experiences for many years on deep cut as well as the developed and improved analysis approaches and theories, the key point of successful or failed construction is in connection with the quality of diaphragm wall, and one of the major construction items which are difficult to control is exactly the diaphragm wall construction generally applied to deep cut construction. The primary cause lies from the guide wall construction up to the water-stop grouting between the finally completed units; in addition, the constructors used to count on the similar projects or local experiences, grasp at times and identify in advance the influence of site stratum change to construction. In view of this, this article is to analyze the risk jeopardy degree during diaphragm wall construction by means of quantitative method through risk management concept, and to apply in advance the available prevention measures so as to eliminate or reduce the uncertainty risk factors in construction. Ultimately, we hereby provide a successful application demonstration to verify the correctness of the original analysis with the interpretation from design to construction for deep cut construction risk management reference. |
| |
|
| Geotechnical Risk Management Practice - A Case Study for Underpinning |
|
| 趙曉周.賴昀暉.呂守陞.陳鴻濤 |
|
| 風險管理、風險分析、托底工程。 |
|
| 風險管理是一門以動態的方式在計畫的生命周期內處理不確定性以降低風險的技術。由於近年來國際上多起嚴重的地工災變，使得風險管理受到廣泛的關注。本文介紹大地工程風險管理的架構與風險分析常用的技術，並以桃園國際機場捷運IATX03標中的托底工程為例，說明大地風險管理的操作實務。 |
|
| Risk management is a technique dealing with uncertainties and corresponding risks. It has been attracted great attention worldwide in geotechnical practice after the occurrence of several severe underground accidents in recent years. In Taiwan, the Airport Link Contract IATX03 is one of the projects formally incorporating this technique into its management scheme. This article introduces fundamentals of geotechnical risk management and demonstrates the application by the case of underpinning in this project. |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|